citam juce da ce CITI da vrati svoj deo 'bailout' para (pare poreskih obveznika koje je drzava dala bankama, beskamatno, da prebrode i ne prodube ekonomsku krizu). Citi je po pisanjima bila najugrozenija banka od svih koje su ostale da plutaju.
Sad odjednom ni godinu dana kasnije imaju i da vrate dug ali i da isplate bonuse.
Polako i meni pocinje da se nesto u stomaku muti. Kakva je ovo bila kriza, da li je zaista postojala sansa da postane najveca svetska ekonomska kriza posle one iz 1920tih ili je sve bilo preuvelicanom gomilom strucnjaka? Kako je moguce da sve banke otplacuju sve pare i imaju za bonuse?
sa druge strane, da li ce ovakvo ponasanje banaka sledeci put rezultirati da javno mnjenje jednostavno ne bude voljno da slusa kukanje i pusti sve niz vodu te dovede do zaista katastrofalne krize?
Quote from: alan ford on December 24, 2009, 03:18:39 PM
sa druge strane, da li ce ovakvo ponasanje banaka sledeci put rezultirati da javno mnjenje jednostavno ne bude voljno da slusa kukanje i pusti sve niz vodu te dovede do zaista katastrofalne krize?
Ti cenis da je ovog puta 'javno mnjenje' uticalo (na bilo koji nacin) na ishod dogadjaja?
pa cenim da je zahvaljujuci medijskoj pokrivenosti, 'strucnjacima' koji su analizirali stanje te stvorenoj ludnici, histerija prilicno poprimila u razmerama.
Mozda nisam mislio javno mnjenje u tom smislu ali sve sto se desavalo van politickih i bankovnih krugova.
Novac nije pozajmljen beskamatno.
Kriza je bila mesavina nedostatka kapitala i krize poverenja. Cim je drzava stala iza bankarskog sistema, ovde, u EU, bilo gde drugde, kriza poverenja aka the bank run vise nije bila kriticna. Vidi - banke su novac za vracanje TARPa dobile rekapitalizacijom, izdavanjem novih serija akcija i pozajmljivanjem na bond marketu. Svrha TARPa i jeste bila da obezbedi kapital na odredjeno vreme, dakle, dok se market ne dovede u red u toj meri da banke mogu da dodju do novca redovnim putem. Cinjenica da se novac vraca federalesima je pre svega dokaz toga da su financial markets ponovo funkcionalni.
Quote from: zagor te nej on December 24, 2009, 03:53:18 PM
Cinjenica da se novac vraca federalesima je pre svega dokaz toga da su financial markets ponovo funkcionalni.
I da je citava 'kriza' bila stvar poverenja i (ne)realnog AAA rejtinga?
Ne, daleko od toga. Gubici bankarskog sistema su preko trilion i po dolara. Projektovani su jos i veci - sve zavisi of toga kako se commercial real estate bude ponasao u 2010oj.
Quote from: zagor te nej on December 24, 2009, 04:05:47 PM
Ne, daleko od toga. Gubici bankarskog sistema su preko trilion i po dolara. Projektovani su jos i veci - sve zavisi of toga kako se commercial real estate bude ponasao u 2010oj.
A sta biva ako se to/toliko 'dostampa' (metodom Topcider) i stavi u ruke onima koji ce znati da 'zavrte' i vrate s kamato i jos da im ostane da isplate i bonuse? Ne da sam nesto fasciniran bonusima nego vidim da je 'javno mnjenje' vrlo angazovano oko toga.
Pa, nije ceo gubitak bankarskog sektora nadoknadjen; u citavom nizu banaka equity investors su prakticno zbrisani sa lica zemlje.TARP nje nastampan, nego su izdate obveznice da se prikupi taj kapital.
sta znaci gubitci su u trilionima dolara? Da li je to izgubljena vrednost, koja mozda nije ni postojala (recimo ta gomila milionskih kuca) ili su pare negde drugde izgubljene? Sta sa ogromnom kolicinom love koja je upumpana u sistem? Ko to placa - ja kroz inflaciju...Kako god obrnes banke su dobile 'besplatnu' lovu da se sistem ne srusi, i cim se stvar stabilizovala ajmo Jovo na novo.
Drugo to poverenje se jako brzo vratilo, banke nisu ni trepnule i sada obzirom da je stanje redovno nista se nije ni promenilo. Mozda da sledeci put ipak nekoliko ode pod led, pa ko prezivi nek razmisli...
AF now you are talking :mrgreen:
QuoteBank of England remains sceptical UK economy can make solid recovery in 2010
The Bank of England is leaving the door open to a new year £200bn money expansion programme after revealing that it remains unconvinced about the economy's ability to emerge from the deepest and longest recession on record.
Minutes of the December meeting of Threadneedle Street's monetary policy committee indicated that the nine-strong body is adopting a watch-and-wait approach amid concerns that an unrelenting credit crunch and a fresh wave of financial unrest abroad could put paid to Britain's recovery hopes.
The MPC said evidence that the economy was on the up after six successive quarters of falling activity were matched by downbeat signs. All nine members of the committee voted to keep borrowing costs on hold at 0.5% and to keep the quantitative easing programme - due to end in February - under review.
Sterling fell following publication of the minutes, with many City analysts convinced that interest rates will remain on hold at their lowest ever level.
Dakle Bank of England se sastao i reshio da kriza u Engleskoj nije josh gotova najverovatnije.Kamate ce ostati dole...samo u ovoj Australiji rastu ko mahnite...toliko nam jebeno dobro ide :cry: . Onako u prolazu chuh da se dug domacinstava jako uvecao tako da je svaki odrastao Australijanac sad duzan valjda $ 75 000.Shto je skoro duplo vishe od prosechnog prihoda ( pa prema matematici koja mi nije jaka strana ispada da je prosechan prihod ispod $ 40 000 ), eto kako nam dobro ide...Kako li je kad nam ne ide :?
QuoteA year of austerity looms in 2010
-David Kuo is director at the Motley Fool. The opinions expressed are his own.-
If you thought 2009 was as bad as things will get, then think again: 2010 could be worse. It is likely to be a year of enforced austerity with both the government and households making obligatory cuts to their budgets.
High on the government's agenda will be reducing the Budget deficit, if the UK is to avoid the embarrassment of having its sovereign debt rating cut by rating agencies. This will have a knock-on effect on households, which could see their disposable incomes slashed by hikes in both direct and indirect taxes.
There are two possible ways for the government to reduce the Budget deficit. The first is to increase tax revenues and the second will be to slash expenditure - both of which will have an adverse impact on the economy. There is a third, which is to raise revenue through the sale of state assets. These may include the Royal Mint, the nations stake in part-nationalised banks, and anything else the Chancellor might find lurking at the back of the wardrobe.
Bogami u Engleskoj ne ochekuju bolje dane u 2010-oj. Naravno narod ce da nagraisa na ovaj ili onaj nachin il ce da im povecaju porez , il ce da ukinu servise koje je drzava davala...il ce da rasprodaju "sve shto nadju u ormanu".Veselo :P
QuoteBernanke and the Corruption of Washington Culture
By DEAN BAKER
The Senate Banking Committee overwhelmingly voted to approve Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke for another 4-year term. This is a remarkable event since it is hard to imagine how Bernanke could have performed worse in his last 4-year term. By Bernanke's own assessment, his policies brought the economy to the brink of another Great Depression. This sort of performance in any other job would get you fired in a second, but for the most important economic policymaker in the country it gets you high praise and another 4-year term.
There is no room for ambiguity in this story. Bernanke was at the Fed since the fall of 2002. (He had a brief stint in 2005 as chair of President Bush's Council of Economic Advisors.) At a point when at least some economists recognized the housing bubble and began to warn of the damage that would result from its collapse, Bernanke insisted that everything was fine and that nothing should be done to rein in the bubble.
Eto izabrashe Bernarkea opet...ovo je neverovatan dogadjaj jer je teshko zamisliti da je mogao loshije da radi nego shto je radio zadnje 4 godine ( kaze pisac ovih redova). E sad...
QuoteYOU might think that board members overseeing businesses that cratered in the credit crisis would be disqualified from serving as directors at other public companies. You would, however, be wrong.
Directors who were supposedly minding the store as disaster struck at companies like Countrywide Financial, Washington Mutual or Fannie Mae have not all been banished from other boardrooms. In many cases, directors just seem to skate away from company woes that occurred on their watch.
To some investors, this is an example of the refusal of those involved in the debacle to accept responsibility for it. Whether you are talking about top executives loading up on leverage, regulators who slept while companies took on titanic risks or mortgage lenders that made thousands of dubious loans, few in this crowd have acknowledged culpability. Taxpayers and shareholders, meanwhile, who had nothing to do with the problems, are left holding the bag.
"None of these directors have stood up and said, `We made a mistake here by not calling management to account,' " said Paul Hodgson, senior research associate at the Corporate Library, a corporate governance research firm. "They have certainly avoided the limelight as far as blame is concerned."
Ako ste mislili da samo u Srbiji ( ex YU ) za vreme komunizma ( a moguce i sad) direktori za chijeg mandata firma ode po led jednostavno odu u drugu firmu da dabome budu opet direktori...zajebali ste se. Evo kazu isto je i u USA.
Quote from: vbo man on December 27, 2009, 12:01:01 PMAko ste mislili da samo u Srbiji ( ex YU ) za vreme komunizma ( a moguce i sad) direktori za chijeg mandata firma ode po led jednostavno odu u drugu firmu da dabome budu opet direktori...zajebali ste se. Evo kazu isto je i u USA.
Paaaaaa, ja ne znam sta da kazem. Ako je ovo istina onda cu morati da revidiram svoju investicionu politiku.
Revidiraj nego kako :mrgreen:
Ja sam onako naivno ochekivala da ovo gore nije sluchaj...A i zashto bi bio jer ako doktoru koji je neshto zajebao debelo moze da se uzme licenca za rad ja ne vidim zashto ne bi moglo i ovim kretenchinama koji se kockaju s tudjim parama :x
Za svoje iluzije smo sami krivi, vbo. Nikada nije ni bilo drugacije u USA, a to sto si ti odabrala da verujes da jeste mozes samo sebe da smatras odgovornom.
QuoteZa svoje iluzije smo sami krivi, vbo
Pa ja , imash pravo...ja ovo postiram samo zato da oni u Srbiji ne bi imali slichnih iluzija kao ja :cry:
Svako je odgovoran za svoje iluzije.
Hocu da kazem da li bi ti verovala da ti je neko pre 10 godina pricao da je u usa onako kako sada znas da jeste (a suprotno tvojim iluzijama)? Da li bi promenila svoje misljenje ili bi rekla pa vi ne znate o cemu pricate.
Eh pa verovatno ne bih...chovek uchi samo na svom iskustvu...da je drugachije ovaj svet bi bio raj :!:
Quote from: vbo man on December 28, 2009, 06:23:21 AM
Eh pa verovatno ne bih...chovek uchi samo na svom iskustvu...da je drugachije ovaj svet bi bio raj :!:
Pa kako onda ocekujes da ti razbijes tudje iluzije ako svoje ne das na razbijanje?
Ma ja SAD hocu da uchim na tudjim iskustvima i vrlo slusham shta ljudi prichaju ( a zakljuchujem svojim mozgom)...ali to je kad omatorish...omudrash... :x
Niko ne kaze da ne slusas. Da li prihvatas tudje misljenje menjajuci svoje, to je drugi par nogavica...
Kad si se poslednji put dala ubediti u nesto?
QuoteKad si se poslednji put dala ubediti u nesto?
Bivalo je...bivalo je...nisam bash tolika mazga :mrgreen:
QuoteFed chief Bernanke finding it's not easy winning second term | McClatchy
South Carolina Republican Sen. Jim DeMint is doing his best to prevent Bernanke from gaining a second term as chairman of the Federal Reserve, the country's central bank.
"We can't overlook the fact that he has presided over one of the biggest economic catastrophes that we've had as a country," DeMint said at a Dec. 17 meeting of the Senate Banking Committee.
DeMint and at least two other senators, Kentucky Republican Jim Bunning and Vermont independent Bernie Sanders, have placed holds on Bernanke's nomination.
DeMint and Sanders vow to block a Senate vote on Bernanke until it considers their bill to require a comprehensive audit of the Federal Reserve by the Government Accountability Office, the investigative arm of Congress.
"Before Ben Bernanke became the Fed chairman in 2006, he headed the Council of Economic Advisers for President (George W.) Bush -- one of the most right-wing presidents in American history," Sanders, a self-described "democratic socialist" who's among the most liberal lawmakers, wrote in a Dec. 8 column. "He also sat on the Fed board of governors from 2002 to 2005."
"Perhaps more than anyone else, Bernanke was in a position to diagnose the impending impending economic disaster and take steps to stop it," Sanders wrote. "Tragically, not only did he fail to prevent the economic collapse that we have experienced, he did not even warn the American people that it was coming until it was too late."
Kako sad ovo? Pa jel izglasan ili nije?
QuoteFighting the Return of the Mega Bonus: Europe Explores Ways to Keep Banks in Check - SPIEGEL ONLINE - News - International
London, of all places, is leading the battle against exaggerated banker bonuses. And leaders from all over the world are discussing how they can put an end to the banking practices that caused the global economic crisis. They are also considering ways for banks to compensate for the damage they caused.
Josef Ackermann can't let it happen. The CEO of Deutsche Bank, Germany's largest, says what he thinks and refuses to back down from a fight -- or from a faux pax.
It sounded like a direct response to none other than Barack Obama. During a recent appearance on the CBS show "60 Minutes," Obama aired out his frustrations with bankers. The same banks "who benefitted from taxpayer assistance ... are fighting tooth and nail with their lobbyists up on Wall Street or up on Capitol Hill fighting against financial regulatory reform," Obama said. He added: "I did not run for office to be helping out a bunch of ... fat cat bankers on Wall Street."
German Chancellor Angela Merkel sees things much the same way. And she's miffed at bankers, too. Merkel recently said in public that some of these bankers were even "shooting (their) mouths off a bit."
Evo ga opet Spiegel :mrgreen: protiv bankara xuss
Hoce li sve ovo biti samo privremeno zavaravanje masa ( kao shto meni izgleda) ili ce bankarima da se stane na rep? xfuck5
Obama se toboze ljuti i kaze : Nisam ja ishao za preCednika da pomazem "debele" ( machke :mrgreen: ) bankare sa Wall St-a". Da je stvarno mislio ozbiljno ( i da oni to znaju) verovatno ne bi bio medju zivima...Ne bi im bilo prvi put da upucaju preCednika...DIVLJACI I PRIMITIVNA STOKA xrofl
Chitam negde da se bash neki chovek koji je do skoro radio za Bush-a nashao u blizini polubelog preCednika s nekoliko pishtolja onomad.Al ga uFatilo xuzi
QuoteFT.com / Europe - German firms see loan access as biggest threat
BERLIN, Dec 27 - German firms see restricted access to loans, which could spiral into a new credit crunch, as the main risk to the economy in 2010, the heads of the country's four main business associations said in a Reuters poll issued on Sunday.
The groups expect Germany to experience a slow recovery in 2010 after it exited its deepest post-war recession in the second quarter of this year, but warned that growth could be at risk if the government does not persuade banks to lend more liberally.
[....]
Credit conditions for German companies tightened in December to their most restrictive levels since July, the latest credit survey from the Ifo research institute showed, reviving concerns over a possible credit crunch in Europe's largest economy.
[...]
On top of the risk to credit supply, the economy also faces a dearth of skilled workers, said Hans Heinrich Driftmann, President of Germany's chamber of industry and commerce (DIHK).
"During the next upswing this will be strongly felt," he said, adding that he did not expect recovery to come quickly. The other associations also expect a tough year ahead, and most say the crisis will not be over in 2010.
Evo ni Nemci se ne nadaju dobrom u 2010...
QuoteUnder the proposed budget, new bond issuance will be kept at Y44,300bn, close to its pledge of Y44,000bn - a level already worrying bond markets as public debt nears 200 per cent of gross domestic product.
Ni u Japanu nije bolja situacija...dugovi ...dugovi...to nisu dobri drugovi :evil:
Istovremeno u USA :
Quote2009: The Year Wall Street Bounced Back and Main Street Got Shafted Robert Reich
After noting how Wall Street has bounced back, how essential to the US economy a healthy financial sector is thought to be and how far this is from the truth Reich puts his finger on the real problem:
The real locus of the problem was never the financial economy to begin with, and the bailout of Wall Street was a sideshow. The real problem was on Main Street, in the real economy. Before the crash, much of America had fallen deeply into unsustainable debt because it had no other way to maintain its standard of living. That's because for so many years almost all the gains of economic growth had been going to a relatively small number of people at the top.
President Obama and his economic team have been telling Americans we'll have to save more in future years, spend less and borrow less from the rest of the world, especially from China. This is necessary and inevitable, they say, in order to "rebalance" global financial flows. China has saved too much and consumed too little, while we have done the reverse.
In truth, most Americans did not spend too much in recent years, relative to the increasing size of the overall American economy. They spent too much only in relation to their declining portion of its gains. Had their portion kept up -- had the people at the top of corporate America, Wall Street banks and hedge funds not taken a disproportionate share -- most Americans would not have felt the necessity to borrow so much.
The year 2009 will be remembered as the year when Main Street got hit hard. Don't expect 2010 to be much better -- that is, if you live in the real economy. The administration is telling Americans that jobs will return next year, and we'll be in a recovery. I hope they're right. But I doubt it. Too many Americans have lost their jobs, incomes, homes and savings. That means most of us won't have the purchasing power to buy nearly all the goods and services the economy is capable of producing. And without enough demand, the economy can't get out of the doldrums.
As long as income and wealth keep concentrating at the top, and the great divide between America's have-mores and have-lesses continues to widen, the Great Recession won't end -- at least not in the real economy.
Naravno problem nije samo Wall ST. Problem je neravnomerna podela bogatstva tako da velika vecina Amerikanaca mora da se zaduzuje da odrzi standard zivota jer najveci deo kolacha uzima jedna mala grupa.Dok se to ne promeni nema izlaska iz krize...kaze gornji tekst.
Budale se zaduzuju da bi zivele iznad svojih primanja. Niko ih ne tera da to rade. Nikad ih niko nije terao. Racionalan covek ne zaradjuje $100 a trosi $150. To rade budale. Za takve nemam apsolutno nikakvog sazaljenja. Mislim, svako svoj krst nosi, jel' tako. Tacno je da je u Bush years jedino profitirao veoma mali procenat veoma bogatih ljudi. sad ce da placaju vise takse, pa ce se to malo ispraviti u pravcu raspodele bogatstva iz devedesetih. Ali je takodje tacno da 60% ljudi uopste ne placa income tax. Takvima izmena poreske politike nista ne menja u zivotu.
QuoteAli je takodje tacno da 60% ljudi uopste ne placa income tax.
Kako to mislish?
Jesu to oni koji ne rade ( ili jako malo zaradjuju) ili oni bogati koji imaju sto nachina da izbegnu taksu ? Ili obe vrste :mrgreen:
Ljudi su se morali zaduzivati da bi ODRZALI standard zivota...teshko je ici na nize...Da je raspodela bila bolja imali bi veca primanja pa bi se ( valjda) manje zaduzivali. Istina je medjutim da je zadnjih 10-ak godina pravljenja potroshachka euforija...kupuj kupuj mozesh mozesh ...krediti nudjeni na chasnu rech...Mnogi su pokushali da pretrche iz jedne klase u drugu...a to se retko i teshko deshava :cry:
Jebotebog, ovaj Blackberry native browser ne jebe uopste moj Ignore setting. Tako sad videh ovu glupost.
"raspodela"...
Za puc', jebote! :mrgreen:
Ja mislio da sam jedini (pravi) ljubitelj samoupravne leksike kad ono medjutim...
Baska sto se tu, u razmaku od 10 reci, udenu i "moraju jer su gladni" do "tera ih se kupuj, kupuj".
QuoteThey spent too much only in relation to their declining portion of its gains. Had their portion kept up -- had the people at the top of corporate America, Wall Street banks and hedge funds not taken a disproportionate share -- most Americans would not have felt the necessity to borrow so much.
Pa ovo je valjda ta raspodela...
QuoteTacno je da je u Bush years jedino profitirao veoma mali procenat veoma bogatih ljudi.
Kao i ovo...
Drzava ( kapitalistichka takodje ) ima nachina ( putem zakona, tax-i itd. ) da napravi "raspodelu" of the "gains"...
Nije bre sve divlji zapad vishe...kako bi voleli vi sa Wall St. ( doci ce i vama crni petak :? ).
Kredite su uzimali ljudi jer im se davalo...a oni mislili " ovi bankari valjda znaju shta rade" :P :x ... JER IM JE "OBECAVANO" DA CE CENE KUCA U NEDOGLED DA RASTU I TO BRZO ... jer im je predochavano da ce tako i oni da se obogate...i slichne gluposti.Poznato je svima ( a bankarima ponajvishe) da je narod stoka koju mozesh da navedesh na shta god hocesh...uz malo propagande.Pa lichno im je preCednik poruchivao nakon 9/11 da samo treba da izadju iz kuce i kupuju kupuju kupuju i tako ce najbolje da pomognu svojoj zemlji...
Sad se pravite blesavi xuzi
Pa jesi kupovala, kupovala, kupovala?
Koliko si se TI zaduzila, vbo? Koliko si TI kupila kuca?
Ja nisam kupovala ( veliki sam cvikator :? ) i mi se nismo zaduzivali preko granice svojih mogucnosti zbog chega cu se vrlo moguce kajati jer cemo da najebemo kao i svi ostali tako shto ce da nam shibaju kamate , moj muz moze da izgubi posao , deca da nemaju posla i sve shto ide sa depresijom...Ali malo je ovakvih kao shto smo mi...vecina koju znam jeste kupovala, kupovala , kupovala...Za sad josh izgleda kao da se nishta nije desilo u Australiaji ali...sad sam se provozala do grada do neke grchke prodavnice da kupim orahe i bakaluk...I usput i tamo u gradu ( u tom starom grchkom kvartu) table sa natpisima " For sale / lease" su prosto iznikle kao pechurke. Radi se o commercial properties i to mahom one vece zgrade/ skladishta/firme...Kazem ja muzu " znachi sve ove firme ce u skoroj buducnosti da zatvore ove prostorije ... znash li koliko ce ljudi onda da ostane bez posla uskoro? "...Mene pravo da ti kazem uhvati panika kad to vidim...Josh kazu da investitori napushtaju Kvinslend ( gde li beze :evil:)...Shta nam ostaje nego da "sedimo i gledamo"...
QuoteBloomberg: War on Wall Street as Congress Sees Returning to Glass-Steagall
A one-page proposal gaining traction in Congress could turn back the clock on Wall Street 10 years, forcing the breakup of banks, including Citigroup Inc.
Lawmakers in both parties, seeking to prevent future financial crises while soothing public anger over bailouts and bonuses, are turning to an approach that's both simple and transformative: re-imposing sections of the 1933 Glass-Steagall Act that separated commercial and investment banking.
Those walls came down with passage of the Gramm-Leach- Bliley Act of 1999. A proposal to reconstruct them, made by U.S. Senators John McCain and Maria Cantwell on Dec. 16, would prevent deposit-taking banks from underwriting securities, engaging in proprietary trading, selling insurance or owning retail brokerages. The bill could also force the unwinding of deals consummated during the financial crisis, including Bank of America Corp.'s acquisition of Merrill Lynch & Co.
by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Mon Dec 28th, 2009 at 12:52:26 PM EST
[ Parent | Reply to This | ]
Re: Economy and Finance (none / 0)
Helpful but insufficient. The USA also needs the resolution authority to break up non-bank TBTF financial corporations, such as AIG, AND THE WILL TO USE THAT AUTHORITY.
If sanity be culturally normative, then by the norms of this culture I claim insanity.
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer at eurotrib.com) on Mon Dec 28th, 2009 at 11:26:56 PM EST
[ Parent | Reply to This | ]
Re: Economy and Finance (none / 0)
This is interesting because several big investment banks, notably Goldman Sachs, converted to "deposit-taking banks" last year in order to qualify for some govt money.
by paving on Tue Dec 29th, 2009 at 03:13:03 AM EST
Od kakvog je ovo znachaja?
Quote from: vbo man
Ja nisam kupovala ( veliki sam cvikator :? ) i mi se nismo zaduzivali preko granice svojih mogucnosti
Pa zasto niste?
Zar i vama, kao i svima, nisu davali kredite, tukli ko nece? Ako su SVI uzimali i SVI naseli, kako je moguce da niste i vi? Zar i vi niste culi da ce da rastu nekretnine u nedogled? Zar niste bili izlozeni svim marketinskim trikovima kao i svi koji su naseli? Zasto niste i vi naseli?
Eto to me zanima.
Kazem ti da smo cvikatori i da se drzimo onoga da stvar mora biti bar 85 % sigurna da se u nju upustimo. Tako jesmo propustili puno toga ( i da oplodimo pare u Dafini i Jezdi izmedju ostalog) :mrgreen: ali nismo zato nigde bili ojadjeni ( osim naravno kroz onu Slobinu Historisku inflaciju ( mada smo i tad radili privatno i samo za marke).Ne znam da li je to samo instikt ( pa i pogreshan :?: ) ali ja imam utisak da ce i ovde morati da se desi neshto ( mozda ne isto kao u USA ali neshto) shto ce da raspukne taj housing bubble koji nastavlja da raste...U svakom sluchaju to je razlog...previshe smo oprezni.
Pa sto onda razumes one koji su se ponasali sasvim debilno? :roll:
60% ne placa income tax jer ili ne pravi dovoljno para, ili pravi dovoljno, ali posle svih tax credits (tipa interesa placenog na kucu, izdataka za zdravstveno osiguranje etc) adjusted income pada ispod minimuma za income tax. Pun tax code rupa.
Thus, Shaneeqa gets to splurge at McDonalds with her 7 kids from 12 fathers - on me. :mrgreen:
Quote from: vbo man on December 29, 2009, 12:47:29 PM
Kazem ti da smo cvikatori i da se drzimo onoga da stvar mora biti bar 85 % sigurna da se u nju upustimo.
Dobro, da li cenis da ima jos ljudi koji su oprezni i koji se ne upustaju?
nema kod jelke labavo.
melje ko kamen.
rodjena za islednika.
Ono jes, samo fali ona memljiva promaja pa da bude k'o u sobi Lubjanke :lol:
Ma Jelka je mrak xrotaeye
Quote"2010: Foreseeable and Unforeseeable Risks ~ The Room For Policy Error is Enormous" Naked Capitalism
Yves Smith presents a post by John Bougearel, author of Riding the Storm Out and Director of Financial and Equity Research for Structural Logic.
NPR queried Timothy (Geithner) about a second wave of systemic crisis coming from commercial real estate or some other seen or unforeseen or unintended time bomb. Many experts remain quite concerned this credit crisis will be back-end loaded with second-round effects and positive feedback loops that spirals us further into the rabbit hole the economy entered in 2008-09. Geithner adamantly replied,
We're not going to have a second wave of financial crisis. We will do what is necessary to prevent that. We can not afford to let the country live again with the risks of another series of events like we had last year. That's not something that is acceptable and we will prevent that. And that is something completely within our capacity to prevent... When you have the will to act we have substantial ability to prevent that and we will do what is necessary.
....
Mr. Geithner's peculiar brand of optimism...is seemingly reminiscent of Chance the Gardener played by Peter Sellers in Being There "As long as the roots are not severed, all is well, and will be well, in the garden." Policy measures and legislation passed to date to stabilize the financial crisis in 2008-09 have primarily been aimed at saving the dysfunctional big banks and preserving the OTC Debt and Derivatives markets. In short, the aim has been to restore the tentacled and tightly coupled roots in the big banks Financial Garden of Eden. The fact that lawmakers on Capitol Hill helped big banks preserve their Financial Garden of Eden in 2008-009 as much as possible should come as no surprise, because these same lawmakers had previously played such a large role helping banks create their garden in the first place which made possible the big banks fall and subsequent global financial meltdown.
Bougearel quotes Paul Volkler's December, '09 interview with Der Speigle as reason why Geithner's optimism is misplaced:
What complicates this [crisis] as compared to the ordinary garden variety recession is that we have this financial collapse on top of an economic disequilibrium...We have not been on a sustainable track and that has to be changed....those changes don't come...in a quarter [or] in a year. If we don't make that adjustment and if we pump up consumption, we will just walk into another crisis. We have not yet achieved self-reinforcing recovery. We are heavily dependent upon government support so far...both in the financial markets and in the economy.
Bougearel continues:
Charles Kindleberger tells us financial crises are "hardy perennials." That is true, but traditional remedies for extinguishing panics in the financial system over the past two hundred years have more or less always followed Walter Bagehot's prescript that you "lend freely and early, to solvent firms, against good collateral, and at high rates." This is what the bank of England did to avert the Panic of 1825. It is exactly what JP Morgan did to avert the Rich Man's Panic of 1907 ~ he liquidated the bad banks and recapped the good ones. This is roughly what FDR did in 1933 and what Sweden did in the 1990s. They all separated the good banks and good collateral from the bad banks and bad collateral, letting the bad banks fail, and backstopping the still solvent banks. The broader aim was always the same, to save the financial system rather than the bad banks and their shaky collateral. To do this, they let the under-collateralized banks fail, and lent freely to solvent banks against good collateral at a high rate.
The financial panic of 2008-09 stands in stark contrast to the extinguishing of previous financial panics. The most outstanding features to the financial panic of 2008-09 was that the policies set in place were to save the bad banks loaded with toxic collateral on and off its balance sheets rather than to save the financial system itself. Lawmakers effected this change in March 2009 when they eliminated the fair value accounting rule to allow insolvent banks to mark their toxic assets at full value rather than at market value. Effectively, they swept the toxic asset under the rug. They masked their toxic effect, but unresolved issues remain. These toxic assets are now being stored on the Federal Reserves and other off-balance sheets, loaded with unrealized losses. The Basel Committee and FASB are now allowing banks until 2012-2013 to put these assets back onto their balance sheets. This explosive timetable has been reset to 2012, the end of the Mayan Calendar. For those with an eschatological bent, this date with destiny might be the End Days of our financial system as we knew it.
This is a first-ever occurrence in 200 years of banking history that losses stemming from bad collateral were not realized early on. They are time bombs with delayed fuses. To partially offset this day of reckoning in (2008), the Federal Reserve adopted a Zero Interest Rate Policy (ZIRP) to help the very same insolvent banks lever up the yield curve borrowing short and lending long to earn their way out of insolvency. But rather than letting these profits restore the banks impaired balance sheets, bank executives are redistributing these profits in the form of bonuses. Worse yet, ZIRP is a financial hardship that hurts millions of saving Americans plowing their hard earned dollars into CDs and money market funds. In this way, a zero interest rate policy serves to undermine the financial security of millions of Americans. And still, the unanswered question is whether insolvent banks can successfully recap themselves before these Bouncing-Betty's detonate. In a race against the clock, policymakers are simply buying banks time, hoping they can avoid mutually assured destruction when their eschatological date with destiny arrives.
QuoteAKA [Ambrose Evans-Pritchard's Crystal Ball of Doom™ Technology]
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard is nothing if not decisive in his views, and has a undisguised fondness for the bearish perspective. But he was correct on the 2008 inflation/commodities headfake, saying repeatedly that deflationary forces would prevail when that was decidedly a minority view. He is also a Euro-skeptic, and I'm less comfortable with that position....
If things work out badly (and I see the odds of that as reasonably high; China is looking more and more like late 1980s Japan), they will work out very badly, markets are highly connected and if the right dominoes fall, many others go down in fast sequence. So the idea that the amplitude on the downside is likely to be extreme is very plausible. But he has also made a timing as well as a depth call, and sees things unravelling pretty soon. That could prove to be correct, but one thing shorts know all too well is that obvious-seeming outcomes can take much longer to come to pass than they ever thought.
Some of his observations seem spot on, in particular, that the Fed will lose its nerve and abandon its efforts to withdraw from quantitative easing, despite noises now to the contrary, that the dollar will rally near-term, and the yen will break.
From the Telegraph:
The contraction of M3 money in the US and Europe over the last six months will slowly puncture economic recovery as 2010 unfolds, with the time-honoured lag of a year or so. Ben Bernanke will be caught off guard, just as he was in mid-2008 when the Fed drove straight through a red warning light with talk of imminent rate rises - the final error that triggered the implosion of Lehman, AIG, and the Western banking system.
As the great bear rally of 2009 runs into the greater Chinese Wall of excess global capacity, it will become clear that we are in the grip of a 21st Century Depression - more akin to Japan's Lost Decade than the 1840s or 1930s, but nothing like the normal cycles of the post-War era. ...The vast East-West imbalances that caused the credit crisis are no better a year later, and perhaps worse. Household debt as a share of GDP sits near record levels in two-fifths of the world economy. Our long purge has barely begun. That is the elephant in the global tent....
Yields on AAA German, French, US, and Canadian bonds will slither back down for a while in a fresh deflation scare. Exit strategies will go back into the deep freeze. Far from ending QE, the Fed will step up bond purchases. Bernanke will get religion again and ram down 10-year Treasury yields, quietly targeting 2.5pc. The funds will try to play the liquidity game yet again, piling into crude, gold, and Russian equities, but this time returns will be meagre. They will learn to respect secular deflation.
Weak sovereigns will buckle. The shocker will be Japan, our Weimar-in-waiting...The Bank of Japan will pull the emergency lever on QE. The country will flip from deflation to incipient hyperinflation. The yen will fall out of bed, outdoing China's yuan in the beggar-thy-neighbour race to the bottom. By then China too will be in a quandary. Wild credit growth can mask the weakness of its mercantilist export model for a while, but only at the price of an asset bubble. Beijing must hit the brakes this year, or store up serious trouble. It will make as big a hash of this as Western central banks did in 2007-2008.
....
The dollar rally will gather pace. America's economy - though sick - will shine within the even sicker OECD club....Mervyn King's pre-emptive QE and timely devaluation will bear fruit this year, sparing us the worst. By mid to late 2010, we will have lanced the biggest boils of the global system. Only then, amid fear and investor revulsion, will we touch bottom. That will be the buying opportunity of our lives.
Being Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, [Europe.Is.Doomed™ Alert] he naturally sees the EU breaking up, but I would not wish to deprive those more qualified than I from quoting and responding to those predictions, so I have omitted specific references to the EU and Euro.
What I find particularly interesting is that he "sees" all of these events and their resolution without even mentioning all of the bad debt at the foundation of the crisis or HOW it is to be resolved. Debt for equity swap?
QuoteSilicon Valley `Bloodbath' Leaves Entire Office Buildings Empty - BusinessWeek
Silicon Valley is beset by the biggest office property glut since the dot-com bust, leaving the U.S. technology hub with empty high-rises and office parks that make it impossible for landlords to sustain average rents.
More than 43 million square feet (4 million square meters) -- the equivalent of 15 Empire State Buildings -- stood vacant at the end of the third quarter, the most in almost five years, according to CB Richard Ellis Group Inc. San Jose, Sunnyvale and Palo Alto have 11 empty office buildings with about 3 million square feet of the best quality space.
"There is a bubble bursting in much the same way as the residential market burst," said Jon Haveman, principal at Beacon Economics, a consulting firm in San Rafael, California. "None of those towers will fill up anytime soon."
Silikonska dolina opustela...nemoz da izdaju poslovni prostor da jebe oca...
QuoteIt felt half empty when I moved to town back in July of 2006 from what I assumed was the leftovers from the dot com boom and offshoring. I watched in relative horror as "Moffett Towers" was being built throughout 2008 before I left on my trip; it sits empty now that it's finished (it's mentioned in the article).
Evo GM zatvara i Opelovu fabriku u Belgiji...2500 radnika...
QuoteGuardian: Obama announces dramatic crackdown on Wall Street banks
President Barack Obama today declared his intent to take on Wall Street by announcing plans for stringent rules on the banking sector that prompted comparisons with the draconian regulations introduced after the Great Depression.
In the boldest move taken by any government around the world to respond to the financial crisis, Obama told banks they would no longer be able to take risky bets with their own capital to make money on the financial markets.
Banks which take deposits will not be allowed to use their own money to take bets on markets, run hedge funds or make private equity investments through what he called the "Volcker rule" after former Federal Reserve chairman Paul Volcker.
He also wants to prevent further consolidation of the financial system in the US and will ban takeovers and mergers among American firms in the sector.
OK ajd nek nam struchnjaci objasne kakav efekat se ochekuje od ovoga? Ako ikakav?
Evo shta kazu u USI
QuoteIndependent: Shares tumble as Obama takes on banks
Bank shares slid and the dollar fell against other currencies after Obama's announcement.
JPMorgan Chase & Co fell 5.8 per cent, helping push the Dow Jones Industrial average lower.
Citigroup Inc fell 6.36 per cent and Bank of America Corp fell 7 per cent while Goldman was down 5.5 per cent despite posting strong earnings Thursday.
"This is going to have a tremendous impact on big-name brokerage firms like Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan," said Ralph Fogel, investment strategist at Fogel Neale Partners in New York.
"If they stop prop trading, it will not only dry up liquidity in the market, but it will change the whole structure of Wall Street, of the whole trading community."
Obama targeted banks for taking big risks while assuming taxpayers would bail them out if they failed.
Mada ja ne verujem u neke ozbiljne promene ipak mogu samo da kazem : "It's about time "...
(http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2010/01/22/business/22banks_CA0/articleLarge.jpg)
Izgleda ko sahrana...samo chija :mrgreen:
QuoteA Majority Of States Are Now Insolvent: Quantifying The Disastrous Unemployment Situation Zero Hedge
Zero Hedge recently highlighted the ever increasing Federal outlays on unemployment insurance, leading to questions on whether the true unemployment rate, as indicated by actual cash outlays, may be materially higher than indicated in increasingly dubious governmental reports. One proposed alternative has been that the Federal government is directly subsidizing standalone states' depleted unemployment insurance trust funds. Using data provided by ProPublica we have been able to confirm that indeed standalone states are for the most part now bankrupt and have no reserves left in their coffers when it comes to funding ever increasing insurance benefits. As ProPublica indicates, there are now 26 states which have depleted their trust funds, among these are the usual suspects including California, Michigan, New York, Pennsylvania and Ohio, which now rely exclusively on borrowings from the Federal government to prevent the cessation of insurance payments to recently unemployed workers. Currently all states collectively posses $10.7 billion in trust fund assets(with the bulk held by less impacted states such as Washington ($2.6 billion), Louisiana ($1.1 billion) and Oregon ($1.1 billion). On the other hand, 26 states currently rely exclusively on the Federal Government, and have borrowed a combined $30 billion through December to fund payments. ProPublica estimates that another 8 states will be insolvent within 6 months, as their trust funds also approach 0.
(http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/madoff/ProPublica%202.jpg)
Shta ste nadigli dreku oko cene grejanja...gledaj shta cheka ove muchenike u Colorado Springsu...a i druge Amere uskoro.
QuoteColorado Springs cuts into services considered basic by many
COLORADO SPRINGS -- This tax-averse city is about to learn what it looks and feels like when budget cuts slash services most Americans consider part of the urban fabric.
More than a third of the streetlights in Colorado Springs will go dark Monday. The police helicopters are for sale on the Internet. The city is dumping firefighting jobs, a vice team, burglary investigators, beat cops -- dozens of police and fire positions will go unfilled.
The parks department removed trash cans last week, replacing them with signs urging users to pack out their own litter.
Neighbors are encouraged to bring their own lawn mowers to local green spaces, because parks workers will mow them only once every two weeks. If that.
Water cutbacks mean most parks will be dead, brown turf by July; the flower and fertilizer budget is zero.
Kriza je bre :?
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WTF, you're wasting everyone's bandwidth. :shock:
A?
B?
C. It has to be C.
hehe bas sam se pitao sta ce da bude abeceda ili cirilica
Pa nije ovo "Glas razuma".
Zavisi ko se javlja
Sasvim sigurno nije glas razuma nego BEZUMLJE i to tvoje.
Ko te bre jebe bolesna moronchino.
naslov iz današnjih novosti
QuotePrepolovljen pad proizvodnje
nečiji PR dobro radi pos'o...skoro pa da ti se učini da se nešto dobro desilo..
Какав си бре то човек?
Ти се не радујеш што је у јануару производња пала у двоструко мањем проценту него током целе прошле године?
Видим ја шта је - тешко ти пада да одаш признање друговима који су за то заслужни...
Quote from: alan ford on December 24, 2009, 03:18:39 PM
citam juce da ce CITI da vrati svoj deo 'bailout' para (pare poreskih obveznika koje je drzava dala bankama, beskamatno, da prebrode i ne prodube ekonomsku krizu). Citi je po pisanjima bila najugrozenija banka od svih koje su ostale da plutaju.
Sad odjednom ni godinu dana kasnije imaju i da vrate dug ali i da isplate bonuse.
Polako i meni pocinje da se nesto u stomaku muti. Kakva je ovo bila kriza, da li je zaista postojala sansa da postane najveca svetska ekonomska kriza posle one iz 1920tih ili je sve bilo preuvelicanom gomilom strucnjaka? Kako je moguce da sve banke otplacuju sve pare i imaju za bonuse?
sa druge strane, da li ce ovakvo ponasanje banaka sledeci put rezultirati da javno mnjenje jednostavno ne bude voljno da slusa kukanje i pusti sve niz vodu te dovede do zaista katastrofalne krize?
bris, bris.....u stvari, predomislila sam se....necu da se upustam, samo cu da procitam xyxy
Quote from: vbo man on February 02, 2010, 11:20:08 PM
Sasvim sigurno nije glas razuma nego BEZUMLJE i to tvoje.
Ko te bre jebe bolesna moronchino.
vbo???
Do I contradict myself? Very well then I contradict myself :mrgreen:
(u stvari, to mi je hobi :mrgreen: :mrgreen:
Idi bre babac... Ti ne bi umela da prepoznas moroncinu sa svojim paradajz-tourist mozgom ni kada bi te ubo u dupe.
Hate, ma idi se lechi choveche!
Amans , izbegavam ovakve stvari ali kad kad jednostavno sa barabama morash barabski.Nema drugog nachina...
ne slazem se :( ni oko definicije barabe, ni oko tretmana iste)
Pa amans ako CHOVEK od 37 godina kaze zeni od 55 godina da pushi kurac , shta je to nego baraba? Eto pitam te "chovechanski"...pritom me i ne poznaje.
Istina je ne treba se izjednachavati sa barabama time shto se spushtash na njihov nivo ali ponekad bash chovek ne moze da se uzdrzi :x
Quote from: vbo man on February 04, 2010, 03:58:58 AM
Pa amans ako CHOVEK od 37 godina kaze zeni od 55 godina da pushi kurac , shta je to nego baraba? Eto pitam te "chovechanski"...pritom me i ne poznaje.
Istina je ne treba se izjednachavati sa barabama time shto se spushtash na njihov nivo ali ponekad bash chovek ne moze da se uzdrzi :x
e, sad, to sa godinama, to je niski udarac...nismo se zato izjasnjavali o gerontoloskim karakteristikama, da bi to onda koristili kao odbrambeno oruzje. Nije uopste bitno koliko ko ima godina. Nismo valjda spali na to da masemo godinama kao autoritetom???
Nemam pojma zasto ti je rekao tako nesto.... pretpostavljam da si mu tamo i odbrusila. A sto se onda nastavljas na njegov sasvim ok komentar? Ko je tu mladji a ko stariji hehe
Nichim ga nisam bila uvredila.Razgovor je krenuo oko toga kako se iz Srbije ne mogu placati ( on je tvrdio) stvari u inostranstvu a preko interneta te kako je neko pomenuo da je to u stvari moguce ja sam napravila komentar da mozda eto njegovi na taj nachin stavljaju njega u polozaj da placa za njihove potrebe.I to je bilo recheno vishe u shali. Na to me je on okrpio ovim gore pomenutim.
Chak i da se ne 'vatam za godine ( premda mama mogu da mu budem) jer internet zaista slabo prepoznaje godine, al uzmi onda chinjenicu da sam zensko.
Ja se takodje koristim psovkama pochesto ali ih lichno upucujem tek kada mene neko pochasti.
On me je ignorisao toboze ali i dalje chita shta pishem.
Shto se tiche ovoga gore krenuo je da mi zabranjuje da postiram ovde. Ko je bre on da bilo kome govori shta ce da postira ovde? Postiracu shta mi je volja dok me administrator ne ukine ili opomene...a posebno cu postirati o USA ( sve shto postiram je iz regularnih novina svetski priznatih) ma koliko se to nekom ne svidelo.Ne mora da chita, a ima i ignore dugme.
Quote from: vbo man on February 04, 2010, 04:49:27 AM
Chak i da se ne 'vatam za godine ( premda mama mogu da mu budem) jer internet zaista slabo prepoznaje godine, al uzmi onda chinjenicu da sam zensko.
Извини, ВБО, али мени је ово толико смешно....
Шта да ти кажем, немој на славу да га зовеш.
Nema problema Slawen, samo mi objasni tachno koji deo ti je toliko smeshan ?
Necu da ga zovem na slavu ali samo objashnjavam onima koji se zgranu kad ja pochastim njega zashto sam u tom iskushenju.
Quote from: slawen on February 04, 2010, 09:22:12 AM
Извини, ВБО, али мени је ово толико смешно....
Шта да ти кажем, немој на славу да га зовеш.
Another Miladin quote: "Sto? Nece mi dodje na slavu valjda..." :mrgreen:
Quote from: amans on February 04, 2010, 04:26:57 AM
Quote from: vbo man on February 04, 2010, 03:58:58 AM
Pa amans ako CHOVEK od 37 godina kaze zeni od 55 godina da pushi kurac , shta je to nego baraba? Eto pitam te "chovechanski"...pritom me i ne poznaje.
Istina je ne treba se izjednachavati sa barabama time shto se spushtash na njihov nivo ali ponekad bash chovek ne moze da se uzdrzi :x
e, sad, to sa godinama, to je niski udarac...nismo se zato izjasnjavali o gerontoloskim karakteristikama, da bi to onda koristili kao odbrambeno oruzje. Nije uopste bitno koliko ko ima godina. Nismo valjda spali na to da masemo godinama kao autoritetom???
Nemam pojma zasto ti je rekao tako nesto.... pretpostavljam da si mu tamo i odbrusila. A sto se onda nastavljas na njegov sasvim ok komentar? Ko je tu mladji a ko stariji hehe
Later tonight, and just before the limmo time :mrgreen:, I'll find and post here the "who started it all" piece.
Quote from: Hate mail on February 04, 2010, 04:13:32 PM
Quote from: slawen on February 04, 2010, 09:22:12 AM
Извини, ВБО, али мени је ово толико смешно....
Шта да ти кажем, немој на славу да га зовеш.
Another Miladin quote: "Sto? Nece mi dodje na slavu valjda..." :mrgreen:
O, pa vi slavite? Obicaji moraju da se ispostuju
Quote from: Hate mail on February 04, 2010, 04:13:32 PM
Quote from: slawen on February 04, 2010, 09:22:12 AM
Извини, ВБО, али мени је ово толико смешно....
Шта да ти кажем, немој на славу да га зовеш.
Another Miladin quote: "Sto? Nece mi dodje na slavu valjda..." :mrgreen:
Да, то је био смисао мојега совјета...
xejt, pa, nemoj biti deca, pogotovo kad je tvoj advantage :mrgreen:
Играју на два пушења разлике.
Dugouzlazni akcent na "O" :twisted:
Ma kakvi ne zelim da se raspravljam uopshte s Hateom.
Samo nemojte da mi dizete obrve tu...vi koji niste upuceni u " sluchaj"...
obrve ko obrve, same se dizu... nije bitno s kim se svadjas, nego kako se svadjas, a to zavisi samo od tebe. Ja sam se samo sa jednom osobom na netu ikada posvadjala (ne racunajuci par okrsaja iza zavese--ono na SC i jednom oko nekog curana sa doktoratom iz statistike :evil: , c kao curka) --kad sam ustala u odbranu neke nejaci od grubog maltretiranja, vise se ni ne secam dobro sta je bilo .... ima tome desetak godinica. Perje je letelo na sve strane samtako, bio boks teske kategorije...tako teske da je broker izbrisao ceo topik kad je ustao i imao sta da vidi, mal nije pao u nesvest hehehe a nisam ni jednu jedinu ruznu ili gadnu rec izgovorila (a kamoli psovke). E, a da mi je bilo krivo sto ga je broker izbrisao, bilo.....bas zato sto sam se u cipkanim rukavicama svadjala.... pa ispalo svasta..... dobra, stara, vremena, jel xejt? :mrgreen: xremyb
davno bese, ne ponovilo se :lol:
ps
i nemoj da se vadis da si zensko, vbo man; ako si zensko, nisi nejac (c kao cegrtaljka)
Ma Amans samo jedno stoji nije trebalo da se kao starija i pametnija xyxy spushtam na njegov nivo...to si jedino u pravu. Medjutim nije bash najjasnije kako je Hate svojim napushavanjem mene u tvojim knjigama stekao advantige...
Valjda stvar lichnih afiniteta.
Ja lichno bih bila zadovoljna da Hate ostane pri svojoj odluci da me stavi na ignore i da me preskochi u svojim komentarima. Isto cu rado uchiniti njemu.
Zanimljivo...
http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2010/02/05/qa-carmen-reinhart-on-greece-us-debt-and-other-scary-scenarios/ (http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2010/02/05/qa-carmen-reinhart-on-greece-us-debt-and-other-scary-scenarios/)
Procitao... i dalje ne razumem sta je lek? Prezaduzivanje je opasno, ali ne treba prekinuti stimulus suvise rano? Ono kao u Alanu Fordu, kocnice ne rade, ali moramo jos nizbrdo?
Speaking of which, sta bi sa Toyotom. Prius recall najavljuju vec danima, a nikako da kazu jeli software ili fizicki problem... ? Jel' CA ima contingency plan?
http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D9DO46N00&show_article=1 (http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D9DO46N00&show_article=1)
Yes: raise taxes! :mrgreen:
Brinuti o prezaduzivanju prosle i ove godine je kao brinuti od cega ces dici krov na novoj kuci podignutoj na temeljima ove koja ti gori pod nogama. Prvo se gasi vatra, posle se razmislja o water damage. Fiskalna politika treba da bude countercyclical, u doba blagostanja drzava treba da trosi manje, kad consumer nestane drzava treba da trosim vise i umanjuje efekte recesije. Nas je problem sto nam je fiskalna politika od 2000te takva da se drzava odrekla ogromnog dela prihoda, a trosila kao nikad, plus na kreditnu karticu stavila najskuplji program od medicare-a do danas, poznatiji kao medicare drug benefit (sva ova dvolicna govna koja sada liju suze krokodilke nad fiskalnom situacijom su glasale i za tax cuts, i za spending increases, ali svi odreda) tako da nam je trenutna fiskalna rupa takva kakva je. Dakle, placacemo vise takse, Social security benefit ce biti sasechen, bolje pre nego kasnije, isto vazi i za Medicare. To je cinjenicno stanje.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f90bca10-1679-11df-bf44-00144feab49a.html?nclick_check=1 (http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f90bca10-1679-11df-bf44-00144feab49a.html?nclick_check=1)
Niall Ferguson:
What we in the western world are about to learn is that there is no such thing as a Keynesian free lunch. Deficits did not "save" us half so much as monetary policy – zero interest rates plus quantitative easing – did. First, the impact of government spending (the hallowed "multiplier") has been much less than the proponents of stimulus hoped. Second, there is a good deal of "leakage" from open economies in a globalised world. Last, crucially, explosions of public debt incur bills that fall due much sooner than we expect
For the world's biggest economy, the US, the day of reckoning still seems reassuringly remote. The worse things get in the eurozone, the more the US dollar rallies as nervous investors park their cash in the "safe haven" of American government debt. This effect may persist for some months, just as the dollar and Treasuries rallied in the depths of the banking panic in late 2008.
Yet even a casual look at the fiscal position of the federal government (not to mention the states) makes a nonsense of the phrase "safe haven". US government debt is a safe haven the way Pearl Harbor was a safe haven in 1941.
QuoteFT.com / Companies / Banks - `Volcker rule' gives Goldman stark choice
Goldman Sachs and other banks should give up their bank status if they want to avoid the ban on proprietary trading proposed by the White House, Paul Volcker, head of President Barack Obama's Economic Recovery Advisory Board, said.
"The implication for Goldman Sachs or any other institution is, do you want to be a bank?" Mr Volcker said in a video interview video interview with the Financial Times. "If you don't want to follow those [banking] rules, you want to go out and do a lot of proprietary stuff, fine, but don't do it with a banking licence."
Mr Volcker, a former chairman of the Federal Reserve, was thrust into the centre of the financial reform debate last month, when Mr Obama endorsed his proposal to separate proprietary trading from commercial banking, naming the policy the "Volcker Rule".
Markets are wondering how the rule would affect groups such as Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase, which have proprietary trading desks and private equity units. The two groups also enjoy financial holding company status and the consequent right to borrow money from the Federal Reserve and accept retail deposits.
Institutions that give up their bank status to continue proprietary trading would lose "the special privileges of a bank". "Don't expect the support you would get from being a bank within the club of insured deposits and access to the Federal Reserve and all the loving attention you get as a bank organisation," Mr Volcker said.
QuoteLet's not forget that Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley became "bank holding companies" in the weeks following the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy in order to be eligible for TARP money.
Kalifonija ne moze da placa svoje rachune vishe...da li je to bankrot? Makar i de facto kad vec zakonski ne moze da bankrotira...
QuoteFiorina Suggests California File Bankruptcy: 'This State Can't Pay Its Bills' | TPMC
California Senate candidate Carly Fiorina, a former Hewlett Packard chief executive, is under fire for suggesting bankruptcy should be a possibility for the cash-strapped state.
[...]
They [her rivals] attacked her as unprepared since states under federal law cannot declare bankruptcy.
She told the Sacramento Bee that she understands that "technicality."
"Sure, I knew, but what cold comfort is that to all these California voters who may not know that technicality but who are sitting here knowing that by any common-sense definition, this state can't pay its bills," Fiorina told The Bee.
Quotehttp://www.theatlantic.com/doc/print/201003/jobless-america-future
The Great Recession may be over, but this era of high joblessness is probably just beginning. Before it ends, it will likely change the life course and character of a generation of young adults. It will leave an indelible imprint on many blue-collar men. It could cripple marriage as an institution in many communities. It may already be plunging many inner cities into a despair not seen for decades. Ultimately, it is likely to warp our politics, our culture, and the character of our society for years to come.
by Don Peck
Da dam i ja svoj doprinos mucenju crnaca:
(http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_Hl0xFV6eHyc/SxAlAgdQmBI/AAAAAAAAFKE/-OUB6qoEpY4/s1600/image001.jpg)
Muciti, muciti i samo muciti.
E mnogo su namuceni.
Quote from: Tromotorac on February 20, 2010, 04:46:36 AM
E mnogo su namuceni.
Sta bi, pitchko namucena? Bogoslosvski [M]uceniku u Chicagu, iu kome te pola serBske enklave prepoznaje kao histerika i neuracunljivog lika xfoht
Ne zajeba[va]j... tri puta si bio na Golom Otoku... Namesticu ti ga/ih da ti gOOza otekne tri puta? xrotaeye xrotaeye xrotaeye
Popushish mi, sa svojom kvazi dzemokracijom a i sire a i duze... Kapish? :x :x :x
_nobody_
Pa to se sve bre ljudi promenilo.Nisu vishe isti standardi.
Meni kad oni iz Beograda pochnu da kukaju kako nemaju ja mislim nemaju da jedu, da plate struju...a oni nekako odmah nakon toga kupili onako masovno lap-topove i plazma TV. Kad mi jedna rodjaka zakukala letos da joj crko TV ja kad sam doshla tamo mislila da idem da joj kupim kakav jeftin ( oni obichni su sad bash jeftini) da ne zive ljudi bez tv-a a kad sam stigla tamo u Beograd vidim ona se snashla i kupila plazmu :x. Mislim drago mi je ali sam moj odnos prema njihovom kukanju drastichno promenila... :lol:
Tako i ovaj crnja...nema chovek da plati stan ali ima za blekberi...Ima danas svakakvih beskucnika...narochito u USA.
QuoteGreece or California: Who'd you rather be? - latimes.com
[Europe.Is.Doomed™ Alert]
If I were the governor of California, cursed with an insoluble budget crisis, and if I had asked the federal government for help and been rebuffed, and if I hailed from Europe and noticed that the European Union had agreed -- in principle at least -- to bail out Greece, I might be mumbling, "Vut gives?"
When Greece (a charming though relatively piddling land) comes calling in Brussels, it gets embraced (and lectured); when California (an economic powerhouse) comes calling in Washington, it gets, almost universally, the cold shoulder.
The reason France and the other economic powerhouses of Europe have said they will ride to Greece's rescue is that they share a common currency, and Greece's default could wreak havoc with the value and viability of the euro and, by extension, with the whole of the European economy. But California and the United States share a common currency as well.
<...>
For now, the European Union is showing itself to be a more functional federation than the United States. You don't have to be an Austrian-born California governor to think, "How crazy is dat?"
QuoteCould the difference have something to do with the fact that Greece might just make changes that the EU requires, whereas the idea of California changing, say, its tax structure in response to a request from the federal government is laughable.
Quote from: _nobody_ on February 20, 2010, 05:13:28 AM
Sta bi, pitchko namucena?...............
puliceru, ajde idi da se igraš na nekom drugom mestu.
Nemaš nikakav kredit da se kurčiš ovde, posebno ne sa provokacijama starim deset godina; pustio sam te malo da se i oni najzaboravniji ražele, ali nema razloga da trpimo tvoja sranja i smrad na duže staze.
Ili postani koliko-toliko normalan što znam da ne možeš, ili ćeš imati zadovoljstvo da pričaš kako si oteran sa još jednog kiberokupljališta.
Dakle, ili se kontroliši ili piši svoj poslednji post ovde...
A jel? A kada sam bio fin na tvom terenu, na Znaku na Kiti, onda si me surovo odyebao? xdrinka
Ti si ionako kreten, i losh covek... Sa tobom moze da se prica samo xtwak...
Tamo sam te porazio cistim intelektom (bio sam najfiniji diskutant tamo), pa si me opet banovao, bezobrazno i drsko. Poceo si da gubis podrsku svojih pijuna na znaku na kiti :o
Znamo Istinu, znas je i ti. Mozes da se slikas sa svojim mozgom velicine dijabole. OK? xjap
Ko te yebe, banuj me... Siledzijo! :mrgreen:
Pojavi se negde gde smo ravnopravni, unakaradicu te od mentalnih batina... Postojaces samo kao penjata. xyxy
_nobody_
Pored svih ostalih manjkavosti kojima te je priroda obdarila, patiš od vrlo selektivnog pamćenja.
Mi ne diskutujemo već 10 godina; ti samo vređaš, klevetaš, lažeš i slaviš nekakvu pobedu koju niko osim tebe ne shvata.
Ja te ne banujem zbog ičega što si rekao meni, tvoje bljuvotine na ZS još uvek stoje, ne interesuje me išta što imaš i možeš da kažeš, ali nekim drugim ljudima ovde ne prija tvoja besmislena prozivka i ja kao dobar domaćin imam vrlo jednostavan izbor kada si ti na jednoj strani a bilo ko na drugoj.
Da... Ko zna sta si pisao pod mojim nikom na Znaku Sa Kite... Nisi im rekao da si preuzeo moj nik, i da ga NISI unistio... xdrinka
Mi NIKADA nismo pricali, da ti osvezim pamcenje. Secam se kada si postirao (pre 10 godina) slike sa registracije tebe i JuceNogood... Koja primitiva, Boze me sacuvaj! Kako te je riba odjebala, kada te je provalila. xrofl
Nemas ti nikakva mooda da se suocis sa mnom na ravnopravnom terenu. Nikada ni necesh...
Pizzdo! xjap
_nobody_
Nego da vidimo gde smo stali...
Sve je to zakuvala ova banda...koja mLoooogooo voli pare.
Ali doci ce i njima crni petak xuzi
Dokumentarna emisija BBC-a ( koji inache obozavam xuzi ) "Love of money"...Volim kad nam ovako lepo objasne ko nas je sjebo :x . Sad mi je mnogo lakshe :x
http://player.sbs.com.au/programs#/programs_08/fullepisodes/latestepisodes/playlist/Love-of-Money-Ep2-The-Age-of-Risk/ (http://player.sbs.com.au/programs#/programs_08/fullepisodes/latestepisodes/playlist/Love-of-Money-Ep2-The-Age-of-Risk/)
Quote from: _nobody_ on February 21, 2010, 12:44:16 PM
Da... Ko zna sta si pisao pod mojim nikom na Znaku Sa Kite... Nisi im rekao da si preuzeo moj nik, i da ga NISI unistio... xdrinka
Mi NIKADA nismo pricali, da ti osvezim pamcenje. Secam se kada si postirao (pre 10 godina) slike sa registracije tebe i JuceNogood... Koja primitiva, Boze me sacuvaj! Kako te je riba odjebala, kada te je provalila. xrofl
Nemas ti nikakva mooda da se suocis sa mnom na ravnopravnom terenu. Nikada ni necesh...
Pizzdo! xjap
_nobody_
opet lažeš sebe i druge; tvoj nik je zamrznut 19.oktobra 2004 i nije mu pristupano od tada. Nešto pre toga je Sendmen hakovao forum i preuzeo neke nikove da postira u njihovo ime, tvoj i Compjuter Wizarda, moj i verovatno još neke, ali to je trajalo vrlo kratko. U svakom slučaju, tvoj nik miruje već 5.5 godina.
Zar sam ja rekao da smo ikada pričali? Diskutovati na forumu, znači razmenjivati postove u kojima postoji međuobraćanje, kao što ih sada u ovih nekoliko postova ima. Ali ovde opet ne govorim u svoje ime, da sam običan učesnik stavio bi te na ignore i zaboravio, ali kao administrator i vlasnik imam određene obaveze. Jednostavno rečeno, već sam te prebacio na redukovani režim učestvovanja, možeš da čitaš u nekim podforumima i pišeš pomalo, a onog momenta kada se bilo ko odavde požali da si ga uvredio, nestaješ zauvek.
Uopšte me ne zanima šta o čemu misliš i šta o čemu imaš da kažeš. Ti si za mene stvorenje ispod crte ljudskog dostojanstva i kao takav možda bi mogao pod određenim uslovima da zavrediš jedino sažaljenje.
U svojoj veteranskoj cyber karijeri videla sam mnoge likove vredne pamcenja, po neke vredne zaborvljanja, a jedini lik koji je vredan potpunog banovanja je Perica.
Hocu da kazem postoje budale, nevaspitane budale, totalne moroncine i Perica.
Nula od coveka po svim nivoima.
U realnom svetu takvima sledi buvara (ne pustanje napolje), a ovde kod nas - ne pustanje unutra.
S jedne strane koga se tice sta pise maloumnik, preskocis post i teras dalje. A sa druge - pa dokle jeboga patak? Zbog cega da se nas 50 ovde stiska i vriska a on ce da se gadja govnima letnji dan do podne.
Ne mogu da se setim zbog cega bi to trpeli.
Drugim recima: teraj to u kurac, Paramecijume.
Ja bi ga ostavio.
Ne volim da se raspravljam... Banuj me, pa da zavrsimo sa tim.
No neces ti jako daleko... Tebi zivota u normalnom svetu nema... Jer preziveti sa dijabiolom od mozga je jako tesko (ako ne lizes doope mocnijima od sebe kao sto ti radis). xjap
_nobody_