prava dubina ekonomske krize?

[alan ford]

citam juce da ce CITI da vrati svoj deo 'bailout' para (pare poreskih obveznika koje je drzava dala bankama, beskamatno, da prebrode i ne prodube ekonomsku krizu). Citi je po pisanjima bila najugrozenija banka od svih koje su ostale da plutaju.
Sad odjednom ni godinu dana kasnije imaju i da vrate dug ali i da isplate bonuse.

Polako i meni pocinje da se nesto u stomaku muti. Kakva je ovo bila kriza, da li je zaista postojala sansa da postane najveca svetska ekonomska kriza posle one iz 1920tih ili je sve bilo preuvelicanom gomilom strucnjaka? Kako je moguce da sve banke otplacuju sve pare i imaju za bonuse?

sa druge strane, da li ce ovakvo ponasanje banaka sledeci put rezultirati da javno mnjenje jednostavno ne bude voljno da slusa kukanje i pusti sve niz vodu te dovede do zaista katastrofalne krize?

[iDemo]

sa druge strane, da li ce ovakvo ponasanje banaka sledeci put rezultirati da javno mnjenje jednostavno ne bude voljno da slusa kukanje i pusti sve niz vodu te dovede do zaista katastrofalne krize?

Ti cenis da je ovog puta 'javno mnjenje' uticalo (na bilo koji nacin) na ishod dogadjaja?

[alan ford]

pa cenim da je zahvaljujuci medijskoj pokrivenosti, 'strucnjacima' koji su analizirali stanje te stvorenoj ludnici, histerija prilicno poprimila u razmerama.
Mozda nisam mislio javno mnjenje u tom smislu ali sve sto se desavalo van politickih i bankovnih krugova.

[zagor te nej]

Novac nije pozajmljen beskamatno.
Kriza je bila mesavina nedostatka kapitala i krize poverenja. Cim je drzava stala iza bankarskog sistema, ovde, u EU, bilo gde drugde, kriza poverenja aka the bank run vise nije bila kriticna. Vidi - banke su novac za vracanje TARPa dobile rekapitalizacijom, izdavanjem novih serija akcija i pozajmljivanjem na bond marketu. Svrha TARPa i jeste bila da obezbedi kapital na odredjeno vreme, dakle, dok se market ne dovede u red u toj meri da banke mogu da dodju do novca redovnim putem. Cinjenica da se novac vraca federalesima je pre svega dokaz toga da su financial markets ponovo funkcionalni.

[iDemo]

Cinjenica da se novac vraca federalesima je pre svega dokaz toga da su financial markets ponovo funkcionalni.

I da je citava 'kriza' bila stvar poverenja i (ne)realnog AAA rejtinga?

[zagor te nej]

Ne, daleko od toga. Gubici bankarskog sistema su preko trilion i po dolara. Projektovani su jos i veci - sve zavisi of toga kako se commercial real estate bude ponasao u 2010oj.

[iDemo]

Ne, daleko od toga. Gubici bankarskog sistema su preko trilion i po dolara. Projektovani su jos i veci - sve zavisi of toga kako se commercial real estate bude ponasao u 2010oj.

A sta biva ako se to/toliko 'dostampa' (metodom Topcider) i stavi u ruke onima koji ce znati da 'zavrte' i vrate s kamato i jos da im ostane da isplate i bonuse? Ne da sam nesto fasciniran bonusima nego vidim da je 'javno mnjenje' vrlo angazovano oko toga.

[zagor te nej]

Pa, nije ceo gubitak bankarskog sektora nadoknadjen; u citavom nizu banaka equity investors su prakticno zbrisani sa lica zemlje.TARP nje nastampan, nego su izdate obveznice da se prikupi taj kapital.

[alan ford]

sta znaci gubitci su u trilionima dolara? Da li je to izgubljena vrednost, koja mozda nije ni postojala (recimo ta gomila milionskih kuca) ili su pare negde drugde izgubljene? Sta sa ogromnom kolicinom love koja je upumpana u sistem? Ko to placa - ja kroz inflaciju...Kako god obrnes banke su dobile 'besplatnu' lovu da se sistem ne srusi, i cim se stvar stabilizovala ajmo Jovo na novo.

Drugo to poverenje se jako brzo vratilo, banke nisu ni trepnule i sada obzirom da je stanje redovno nista se nije ni promenilo. Mozda da sledeci put ipak nekoliko ode pod led, pa ko prezivi nek razmisli...

[vbo man]

AF now you are talking :mrgreen:

[vbo man]

Bank of England remains sceptical UK economy can make solid recovery in 2010

    The Bank of England is leaving the door open to a new year £200bn money expansion programme after revealing that it remains unconvinced about the economy's ability to emerge from the deepest and longest recession on record.

    Minutes of the December meeting of Threadneedle Street's monetary policy committee indicated that the nine-strong body is adopting a watch-and-wait approach amid concerns that an unrelenting credit crunch and a fresh wave of financial unrest abroad could put paid to Britain's recovery hopes.

    The MPC said evidence that the economy was on the up after six successive quarters of falling activity were matched by downbeat signs. All nine members of the committee voted to keep borrowing costs on hold at 0.5% and to keep the quantitative easing programme - due to end in February - under review.

    Sterling fell following publication of the minutes, with many City analysts convinced that interest rates will remain on hold at their lowest ever level.

Dakle Bank of England se sastao i reshio da kriza u Engleskoj nije josh gotova najverovatnije.Kamate ce ostati dole...samo u ovoj Australiji rastu ko mahnite...toliko nam jebeno dobro ide  :cry: . Onako u prolazu chuh da se dug domacinstava jako uvecao tako da je svaki odrastao Australijanac sad duzan valjda $ 75 000.Shto je skoro duplo vishe od prosechnog prihoda ( pa prema matematici koja mi nije jaka strana ispada da je prosechan prihod ispod $ 40 000 ), eto kako nam dobro ide...Kako li je kad nam ne ide :?

[vbo man]

A year of austerity looms in 2010

    -David Kuo is director at the Motley Fool. The opinions expressed are his own.-

    If you thought 2009 was as bad as things will get, then think again: 2010 could be worse. It is likely to be a year of enforced austerity with both the government and households making obligatory cuts to their budgets.

    High on the government's agenda will be reducing the Budget deficit, if the UK is to avoid the embarrassment of having its sovereign debt rating cut by rating agencies. This will have a knock-on effect on households, which could see their disposable incomes slashed by hikes in both direct and indirect taxes.

    There are two possible ways for the government to reduce the Budget deficit. The first is to increase tax revenues and the second will be to slash expenditure - both of which will have an adverse impact on the economy. There is a third, which is to raise revenue through the sale of state assets. These may include the Royal Mint, the nations stake in part-nationalised banks, and anything else the Chancellor might find lurking at the back of the wardrobe.

Bogami u Engleskoj ne ochekuju bolje dane u 2010-oj. Naravno narod ce da nagraisa na ovaj ili onaj nachin il ce da im povecaju porez , il ce da ukinu servise koje je drzava davala...il ce da rasprodaju "sve shto nadju u ormanu".Veselo :P

[vbo man]

Bernanke and the Corruption of Washington Culture

By DEAN BAKER

    The Senate Banking Committee overwhelmingly voted to approve Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke for another 4-year term. This is a remarkable event since it is hard to imagine how Bernanke could have performed worse in his last 4-year term. By Bernanke's own assessment, his policies brought the economy to the brink of another Great Depression. This sort of performance in any other job would get you fired in a second, but for the most important economic policymaker in the country it gets you high praise and another 4-year term.

    There is no room for ambiguity in this story. Bernanke was at the Fed since the fall of 2002. (He had a brief stint in 2005 as chair of President Bush's Council of Economic Advisors.) At a point when at least some economists recognized the housing bubble and began to warn of the damage that would result from its collapse, Bernanke insisted that everything was fine and that nothing should be done to rein in the bubble.

Eto izabrashe Bernarkea opet...ovo je neverovatan dogadjaj jer je teshko zamisliti da je mogao loshije da radi nego shto je radio zadnje 4 godine ( kaze pisac ovih redova). E sad...

YOU might think that board members overseeing businesses that cratered in the credit crisis would be disqualified from serving as directors at other public companies.         You would, however, be wrong.

Directors who were supposedly minding the store as disaster struck at companies like Countrywide Financial, Washington Mutual or Fannie Mae have not all been banished from other boardrooms. In many cases, directors just seem to skate away from company woes that occurred on their watch.

To some investors, this is an example of the refusal of those involved in the debacle to accept responsibility for it. Whether you are talking about top executives loading up on leverage, regulators who slept while companies took on titanic risks or mortgage lenders that made thousands of dubious loans, few in this crowd have acknowledged culpability. Taxpayers and shareholders, meanwhile, who had nothing to do with the problems, are left holding the bag.

"None of these directors have stood up and said, `We made a mistake here by not calling management to account,' " said Paul Hodgson, senior research associate at the Corporate Library, a corporate governance research firm. "They have certainly avoided the limelight as far as blame is concerned."

Ako ste mislili da samo u Srbiji ( ex YU ) za vreme komunizma ( a moguce i sad) direktori za chijeg mandata firma ode po led jednostavno odu u drugu firmu da dabome budu opet direktori...zajebali ste se. Evo kazu isto je i u USA.

[iDemo]

Ako ste mislili da samo u Srbiji ( ex YU ) za vreme komunizma ( a moguce i sad) direktori za chijeg mandata firma ode po led jednostavno odu u drugu firmu da dabome budu opet direktori...zajebali ste se. Evo kazu isto je i u USA.

Paaaaaa, ja ne znam sta da kazem. Ako je ovo istina onda cu morati da revidiram svoju investicionu politiku.

[vbo man]

Revidiraj nego kako :mrgreen:
Ja sam onako naivno ochekivala da ovo gore nije sluchaj...A i zashto bi bio jer ako doktoru koji je neshto zajebao debelo moze da se uzme licenca za rad ja ne vidim zashto ne bi moglo i ovim kretenchinama koji se kockaju s tudjim parama :x

[Jelence]

Za svoje iluzije smo sami krivi, vbo. Nikada nije ni bilo drugacije u USA, a to sto si ti odabrala da verujes da jeste mozes samo sebe da smatras odgovornom.

[vbo man]

Za svoje iluzije smo sami krivi, vbo

Pa ja , imash pravo...ja ovo postiram samo zato da oni u Srbiji ne bi imali slichnih iluzija kao ja :cry:

[Jelence]

Svako je odgovoran za svoje iluzije.
Hocu da kazem da li bi ti verovala da ti je neko pre 10 godina pricao da je u usa onako kako sada znas da jeste (a suprotno tvojim iluzijama)? Da li bi promenila svoje misljenje ili bi rekla pa vi ne znate o cemu pricate.

[vbo man]

Eh pa verovatno ne bih...chovek uchi samo na svom iskustvu...da je drugachije ovaj svet bi bio raj :!:

[Jelence]

Eh pa verovatno ne bih...chovek uchi samo na svom iskustvu...da je drugachije ovaj svet bi bio raj :!:

Pa kako onda ocekujes da ti razbijes tudje iluzije ako svoje ne das na razbijanje?

[vbo man]

Ma ja SAD hocu da uchim na tudjim iskustvima i vrlo slusham shta ljudi prichaju ( a zakljuchujem svojim mozgom)...ali to je kad omatorish...omudrash... :x

[Jelence]

Niko ne kaze da ne slusas. Da li prihvatas tudje misljenje menjajuci svoje, to je drugi par nogavica...

Kad si se poslednji put dala ubediti u nesto?

[vbo man]

Kad si se poslednji put dala ubediti u nesto?

Bivalo je...bivalo je...nisam bash tolika mazga :mrgreen:

[vbo man]

Fed chief Bernanke finding it's not easy winning second term | McClatchy

    South Carolina Republican Sen. Jim DeMint is doing his best to prevent Bernanke from gaining a second term as chairman of the Federal Reserve, the country's central bank.

    "We can't overlook the fact that he has presided over one of the biggest economic catastrophes that we've had as a country," DeMint said at a Dec. 17 meeting of the Senate Banking Committee.

    DeMint and at least two other senators, Kentucky Republican Jim Bunning and Vermont independent Bernie Sanders, have placed holds on Bernanke's nomination.

    DeMint and Sanders vow to block a Senate vote on Bernanke until it considers their bill to require a comprehensive audit of the Federal Reserve by the Government Accountability Office, the investigative arm of Congress.

    "Before Ben Bernanke became the Fed chairman in 2006, he headed the Council of Economic Advisers for President (George W.) Bush -- one of the most right-wing presidents in American history," Sanders, a self-described "democratic socialist" who's among the most liberal lawmakers, wrote in a Dec. 8 column. "He also sat on the Fed board of governors from 2002 to 2005."

    "Perhaps more than anyone else, Bernanke was in a position to diagnose the impending impending economic disaster and take steps to stop it," Sanders wrote. "Tragically, not only did he fail to prevent the economic collapse that we have experienced, he did not even warn the American people that it was coming until it was too late."

Kako sad ovo? Pa jel izglasan ili nije?

[vbo man]

Fighting the Return of the Mega Bonus: Europe Explores Ways to Keep Banks in Check - SPIEGEL ONLINE - News - International

   London, of all places, is leading the battle against exaggerated banker bonuses. And leaders from all over the world are discussing how they can put an end to the banking practices that caused the global economic crisis. They are also considering ways for banks to compensate for the damage they caused.

   Josef Ackermann can't let it happen. The CEO of Deutsche Bank, Germany's largest, says what he thinks and refuses to back down from a fight -- or from a faux pax.

   It sounded like a direct response to none other than Barack Obama. During a recent appearance on the CBS show "60 Minutes," Obama aired out his frustrations with bankers. The same banks "who benefitted from taxpayer assistance ... are fighting tooth and nail with their lobbyists up on Wall Street or up on Capitol Hill fighting against financial regulatory reform," Obama said. He added: "I did not run for office to be helping out a bunch of ... fat cat bankers on Wall Street."

   German Chancellor Angela Merkel sees things much the same way. And she's miffed at bankers, too. Merkel recently said in public that some of these bankers were even "shooting (their) mouths off a bit."

Evo ga opet Spiegel :mrgreen: protiv bankara xuss
Hoce li sve ovo biti samo privremeno zavaravanje masa ( kao shto meni izgleda) ili ce bankarima da se stane na rep? xfuck5
Obama se toboze ljuti i kaze : Nisam ja ishao za preCednika da pomazem "debele" ( machke  :mrgreen: ) bankare sa Wall St-a". Da je stvarno mislio ozbiljno ( i da oni to znaju) verovatno ne bi bio medju zivima...Ne bi im bilo prvi put da upucaju preCednika...DIVLJACI I PRIMITIVNA STOKA xrofl
Chitam negde da se bash neki chovek koji je do skoro radio za Bush-a nashao u blizini polubelog preCednika s nekoliko pishtolja onomad.Al ga uFatilo xuzi

[vbo man]

FT.com / Europe - German firms see loan access as biggest threat

    BERLIN, Dec 27 - German firms see restricted access to loans, which could spiral into a new credit crunch, as the main risk to the economy in 2010, the heads of the country's four main business associations said in a Reuters poll issued on Sunday.

    The groups expect Germany to experience a slow recovery in 2010 after it exited its deepest post-war recession in the second quarter of this year, but warned that growth could be at risk if the government does not persuade banks to lend more liberally.

    [....]

    Credit conditions for German companies tightened in December to their most restrictive levels since July, the latest credit survey from the Ifo research institute showed, reviving concerns over a possible credit crunch in Europe's largest economy.

    [...]

    On top of the risk to credit supply, the economy also faces a dearth of skilled workers, said Hans Heinrich Driftmann, President of Germany's chamber of industry and commerce (DIHK).

    "During the next upswing this will be strongly felt," he said, adding that he did not expect recovery to come quickly. The other associations also expect a tough year ahead, and most say the crisis will not be over in 2010.

Evo ni Nemci se ne nadaju dobrom u 2010...

[vbo man]

Under the proposed budget, new bond issuance will be kept at Y44,300bn, close to its pledge of Y44,000bn - a level already worrying bond markets as public debt nears 200 per cent of gross domestic product.

Ni u Japanu nije bolja situacija...dugovi ...dugovi...to nisu dobri drugovi :evil:

[vbo man]

Istovremeno u USA :

2009: The Year Wall Street Bounced Back and Main Street Got Shafted  Robert Reich

After noting how Wall Street has bounced back, how essential to the US economy a healthy financial sector is thought to be and how far this is from the truth Reich puts his finger on the real problem:

   The real locus of the problem was never the financial economy to begin with, and the bailout of Wall Street was a sideshow. The real problem was on Main Street, in the real economy. Before the crash, much of America had fallen deeply into unsustainable debt because it had no other way to maintain its standard of living. That's because for so many years almost all the gains of economic growth had been going to a relatively small number of people at the top.

   President Obama and his economic team have been telling Americans we'll have to save more in future years, spend less and borrow less from the rest of the world, especially from China. This is necessary and inevitable, they say, in order to "rebalance" global financial flows. China has saved too much and consumed too little, while we have done the reverse.

   In truth, most Americans did not spend too much in recent years, relative to the increasing size of the overall American economy. They spent too much only in relation to their declining portion of its gains. Had their portion kept up -- had the people at the top of corporate America, Wall Street banks and hedge funds not taken a disproportionate share -- most Americans would not have felt the necessity to borrow so much.

   The year 2009 will be remembered as the year when Main Street got hit hard. Don't expect 2010 to be much better -- that is, if you live in the real economy. The administration is telling Americans that jobs will return next year, and we'll be in a recovery. I hope they're right. But I doubt it. Too many Americans have lost their jobs, incomes, homes and savings. That means most of us won't have the purchasing power to buy nearly all the goods and services the economy is capable of producing. And without enough demand, the economy can't get out of the doldrums.

   As long as income and wealth keep concentrating at the top, and the great divide between America's have-mores and have-lesses continues to widen, the Great Recession won't end -- at least not in the real economy.

Naravno problem nije samo Wall ST. Problem je neravnomerna podela bogatstva tako da velika vecina Amerikanaca mora da se zaduzuje da odrzi standard zivota jer najveci deo kolacha uzima jedna mala grupa.Dok se to ne promeni nema izlaska iz krize...kaze gornji tekst.

[zagor te nej]

Budale se zaduzuju da bi zivele iznad svojih primanja. Niko ih ne tera da to rade. Nikad ih niko nije terao. Racionalan covek ne zaradjuje $100 a  trosi $150. To rade budale. Za takve nemam apsolutno nikakvog sazaljenja. Mislim, svako svoj krst nosi, jel' tako. Tacno je da je u Bush years jedino profitirao veoma mali procenat veoma bogatih ljudi. sad ce da placaju vise takse, pa ce se to malo ispraviti u pravcu raspodele bogatstva iz devedesetih. Ali je takodje tacno da 60% ljudi uopste ne placa income tax. Takvima izmena poreske politike nista ne menja u zivotu.

[vbo man]

Ali je takodje tacno da 60% ljudi uopste ne placa income tax.

Kako to mislish?
Jesu to oni koji ne rade ( ili jako malo zaradjuju) ili oni bogati koji imaju sto nachina da izbegnu taksu ? Ili obe vrste  :mrgreen:
Ljudi su se morali zaduzivati da bi ODRZALI standard zivota...teshko je ici na nize...Da je raspodela bila bolja imali bi veca primanja pa bi se ( valjda) manje zaduzivali. Istina je medjutim da je zadnjih 10-ak godina pravljenja potroshachka euforija...kupuj kupuj mozesh mozesh ...krediti nudjeni na chasnu rech...Mnogi su pokushali da pretrche iz jedne klase u drugu...a to se retko i teshko deshava :cry:

[Hate mail]

Jebotebog, ovaj Blackberry native browser ne jebe uopste moj Ignore setting. Tako sad videh ovu glupost.

"raspodela"...

Za puc', jebote! :mrgreen:

Ja mislio da sam jedini (pravi) ljubitelj samoupravne leksike kad ono medjutim...

Baska sto se tu, u razmaku od 10 reci, udenu i "moraju jer su gladni" do "tera ih se kupuj, kupuj".

[vbo man]

They spent too much only in relation to their declining portion of its gains. Had their portion kept up -- had the people at the top of corporate America, Wall Street banks and hedge funds not taken a disproportionate share -- most Americans would not have felt the necessity to borrow so much.

Pa ovo je valjda ta raspodela...

Tacno je da je u Bush years jedino profitirao veoma mali procenat veoma bogatih ljudi.

Kao i ovo...
Drzava ( kapitalistichka takodje ) ima nachina ( putem zakona, tax-i itd. ) da napravi "raspodelu" of the "gains"...
Nije bre sve divlji zapad vishe...kako bi voleli vi sa Wall St. ( doci ce i vama crni petak :? ).
Kredite su uzimali ljudi jer im se davalo...a oni mislili " ovi bankari valjda znaju shta rade" :P :x ... JER IM JE "OBECAVANO" DA CE CENE KUCA U NEDOGLED DA RASTU I TO BRZO ... jer im je predochavano da ce tako i oni da se obogate...i slichne gluposti.Poznato je svima ( a bankarima ponajvishe) da je narod stoka koju mozesh da navedesh na shta god hocesh...uz malo propagande.Pa lichno im je preCednik poruchivao nakon 9/11 da samo treba da izadju iz kuce i kupuju kupuju kupuju i tako ce najbolje da pomognu svojoj zemlji...
Sad se pravite blesavi xuzi

[Jelence]

Pa jesi kupovala, kupovala, kupovala?
Koliko si se TI zaduzila, vbo? Koliko si TI kupila kuca?

[vbo man]

Ja nisam kupovala ( veliki sam cvikator :? ) i mi se nismo zaduzivali preko granice svojih mogucnosti  zbog chega cu se vrlo moguce kajati jer cemo da najebemo kao i svi ostali tako shto ce da nam shibaju kamate , moj muz moze da izgubi posao , deca da nemaju posla i sve shto ide sa depresijom...Ali malo je ovakvih kao shto smo mi...vecina koju znam jeste kupovala, kupovala , kupovala...Za sad josh izgleda kao da se nishta nije desilo u Australiaji ali...sad sam se provozala do grada do neke grchke prodavnice da kupim orahe i bakaluk...I usput i tamo u gradu ( u tom starom grchkom kvartu) table sa natpisima " For sale / lease" su prosto iznikle kao pechurke. Radi se o commercial properties i to mahom one vece zgrade/ skladishta/firme...Kazem ja muzu " znachi sve ove firme ce u skoroj buducnosti da zatvore ove prostorije ... znash li koliko ce ljudi onda da ostane bez posla uskoro? "...Mene pravo da ti kazem uhvati panika kad to vidim...Josh kazu da investitori napushtaju Kvinslend ( gde li beze :evil:)...Shta nam ostaje nego da "sedimo i gledamo"...

[vbo man]

Bloomberg: War on Wall Street as Congress Sees Returning to Glass-Steagall

    A one-page proposal gaining traction in Congress could turn back the clock on Wall Street 10 years, forcing the breakup of banks, including Citigroup Inc.

    Lawmakers in both parties, seeking to prevent future financial crises while soothing public anger over bailouts and bonuses, are turning to an approach that's both simple and transformative: re-imposing sections of the 1933 Glass-Steagall Act that separated commercial and investment banking.

    Those walls came down with passage of the Gramm-Leach- Bliley Act of 1999. A proposal to reconstruct them, made by U.S. Senators John McCain and Maria Cantwell on Dec. 16, would prevent deposit-taking banks from underwriting securities, engaging in proprietary trading, selling insurance or owning retail brokerages. The bill could also force the unwinding of deals consummated during the financial crisis, including Bank of America Corp.'s acquisition of Merrill Lynch & Co.

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Mon Dec 28th, 2009 at 12:52:26 PM EST
[ Parent | Reply to This | ]

    Re: Economy and Finance (none / 0)
    Helpful but insufficient. The USA also needs the resolution authority to break up non-bank TBTF financial corporations, such as AIG, AND THE WILL TO USE THAT AUTHORITY.

    If sanity be culturally normative, then by the norms of this culture I claim insanity.
    by ARGeezer (ARGeezer at eurotrib.com) on Mon Dec 28th, 2009 at 11:26:56 PM EST
    [ Parent | Reply to This | ]
    Re: Economy and Finance (none / 0)
    This is interesting because several big investment banks, notably Goldman Sachs, converted to "deposit-taking banks" last year in order to qualify for some govt money.
    by paving on Tue Dec 29th, 2009 at 03:13:03 AM EST

Od kakvog je ovo znachaja?

[Jelence]

Ja nisam kupovala ( veliki sam cvikator :? ) i mi se nismo zaduzivali preko granice svojih mogucnosti 

Pa zasto niste?
Zar i vama, kao i svima, nisu davali kredite, tukli ko nece? Ako su SVI uzimali i SVI naseli, kako je moguce da niste i vi? Zar i vi niste culi da ce da rastu nekretnine u nedogled? Zar niste bili izlozeni svim marketinskim trikovima kao i svi koji su naseli? Zasto niste i vi naseli?

Eto to me zanima.

[vbo man]

Kazem ti da smo cvikatori i da se drzimo onoga da stvar mora biti bar 85 % sigurna da se u nju upustimo. Tako jesmo propustili puno toga ( i da oplodimo pare u Dafini i Jezdi izmedju ostalog) :mrgreen: ali nismo zato nigde bili ojadjeni  ( osim naravno kroz onu Slobinu Historisku inflaciju ( mada smo i tad radili privatno i samo za marke).Ne znam da li je to samo instikt ( pa i pogreshan  :?: ) ali ja imam utisak da ce i ovde morati da se desi neshto ( mozda ne isto kao u USA ali neshto) shto ce da raspukne taj housing bubble koji nastavlja da raste...U svakom sluchaju to je razlog...previshe smo oprezni.

[zagor te nej]

Pa sto onda razumes one koji su se ponasali sasvim debilno?    :roll:

60% ne placa income tax jer ili ne pravi dovoljno para, ili pravi dovoljno, ali posle svih tax credits (tipa interesa placenog na kucu, izdataka za zdravstveno osiguranje etc) adjusted income pada ispod minimuma za income tax. Pun tax code rupa.

[Hate mail]

Thus, Shaneeqa gets to splurge at McDonalds with her 7 kids from 12 fathers - on me.  :mrgreen:

[Jelence]

Kazem ti da smo cvikatori i da se drzimo onoga da stvar mora biti bar 85 % sigurna da se u nju upustimo.

Dobro, da li cenis da ima jos ljudi koji su oprezni i koji se ne upustaju?

[tarana]

nema kod jelke labavo.
melje ko kamen.
rodjena za islednika.

[Jelence]

nema kod jelke labavo.

:mrgreen:

[zagor te nej]

Ono jes, samo fali ona memljiva promaja pa da bude k'o u sobi Lubjanke  :lol:

[vbo man]

Ma Jelka je mrak xrotaeye

[iDemo]

nema kod jelke lavabo.

:idea:

[vbo man]

"2010: Foreseeable and Unforeseeable Risks ~ The Room For Policy Error is Enormous"  Naked Capitalism

Yves Smith presents a post by John Bougearel, author of Riding the Storm Out and Director of Financial and Equity Research for Structural Logic.

    NPR queried Timothy (Geithner) about a second wave of systemic crisis coming from commercial real estate or some other seen or unforeseen or unintended time bomb. Many experts remain quite concerned this credit crisis will be back-end loaded with second-round effects and positive feedback loops that spirals us further into the rabbit hole the economy entered in 2008-09. Geithner adamantly replied,

           We're not going to have a second wave of financial crisis. We will do what is necessary to prevent that. We can not afford to let the country live again with the risks of another series of events like we had last year. That's not something that is acceptable and we will prevent that. And that is something completely within our capacity to prevent... When you have the will to act we have substantial ability to prevent that and we will do what is necessary.

    ....

    Mr. Geithner's peculiar brand of optimism...is seemingly reminiscent of Chance the Gardener played by Peter Sellers in Being There "As long as the roots are not severed, all is well, and will be well, in the garden." Policy measures and legislation passed to date to stabilize the financial crisis in 2008-09 have primarily been aimed at saving the dysfunctional big banks and preserving the OTC Debt and Derivatives markets. In short, the aim has been to restore the tentacled and tightly coupled roots in the big banks Financial Garden of Eden. The fact that lawmakers on Capitol Hill helped big banks preserve their Financial Garden of Eden in 2008-009 as much as possible should come as no surprise, because these same lawmakers had previously played such a large role helping banks create their garden in the first place which made possible the big banks fall and subsequent global financial meltdown.



Bougearel quotes Paul Volkler's December, '09 interview with Der Speigle as reason why Geithner's optimism is misplaced:

    What complicates this [crisis] as compared to the ordinary garden variety recession is that we have this financial collapse on top of an economic disequilibrium...We have not been on a sustainable track and that has to be changed....those changes don't come...in a quarter [or] in a year. If we don't make that adjustment and if we pump up consumption, we will just walk into another crisis. We have not yet achieved self-reinforcing recovery. We are heavily dependent upon government support so far...both in the financial markets and in the economy.

Bougearel continues:

    Charles Kindleberger tells us financial crises are "hardy perennials." That is true, but traditional remedies for extinguishing panics in the financial system over the past two hundred years have more or less always followed Walter Bagehot's prescript that you "lend freely and early, to solvent firms, against good collateral, and at high rates." This is what the bank of England did to avert the Panic of 1825. It is exactly what JP Morgan did to avert the Rich Man's Panic of 1907 ~ he liquidated the bad banks and recapped the good ones. This is roughly what FDR did in 1933 and what Sweden did in the 1990s. They all separated the good banks and good collateral from the bad banks and bad collateral, letting the bad banks fail, and backstopping the still solvent banks. The broader aim was always the same, to save the financial system rather than the bad banks and their shaky collateral. To do this, they let the under-collateralized banks fail, and lent freely to solvent banks against good collateral at a high rate.

    The financial panic of 2008-09 stands in stark contrast to the extinguishing of previous financial panics. The most outstanding features to the financial panic of 2008-09 was that the policies set in place were to save the bad banks loaded with toxic collateral on and off its balance sheets rather than to save the financial system itself. Lawmakers effected this change in March 2009 when they eliminated the fair value accounting rule to allow insolvent banks to mark their toxic assets at full value rather than at market value. Effectively, they swept the toxic asset under the rug. They masked their toxic effect, but unresolved issues remain. These toxic assets are now being stored on the Federal Reserves and other off-balance sheets, loaded with unrealized losses. The Basel Committee and FASB are now allowing banks until 2012-2013 to put these assets back onto their balance sheets. This explosive timetable has been reset to 2012, the end of the Mayan Calendar. For those with an eschatological bent, this date with destiny might be the End Days of our financial system as we knew it.

    This is a first-ever occurrence in 200 years of banking history that losses stemming from bad collateral were not realized early on. They are time bombs with delayed fuses. To partially offset this day of reckoning in (2008), the Federal Reserve adopted a Zero Interest Rate Policy (ZIRP) to help the very same insolvent banks lever up the yield curve borrowing short and lending long to earn their way out of insolvency. But rather than letting these profits restore the banks impaired balance sheets, bank executives are redistributing these profits in the form of bonuses. Worse yet, ZIRP is a financial hardship that hurts millions of saving Americans plowing their hard earned dollars into CDs and money market funds. In this way, a zero interest rate policy serves to undermine the financial security of millions of Americans. And still, the unanswered question is whether insolvent banks can successfully recap themselves before these Bouncing-Betty's detonate. In a race against the clock, policymakers are simply buying banks time, hoping they can avoid mutually assured destruction when their eschatological date with destiny arrives.

[vbo man]

AKA [Ambrose Evans-Pritchard's Crystal Ball of Doom™ Technology]

    Ambrose Evans-Pritchard is nothing if not decisive in his views, and has a undisguised fondness for the bearish perspective. But he was correct on the 2008 inflation/commodities headfake, saying repeatedly that deflationary forces would prevail when that was decidedly a minority view. He is also a Euro-skeptic, and I'm less comfortable with that position....

    If things work out badly (and I see the odds of that as reasonably high; China is looking more and more like late 1980s Japan), they will work out very badly, markets are highly connected and if the right dominoes fall, many others go down in fast sequence. So the idea that the amplitude on the downside is likely to be extreme is very plausible. But he has also made a timing as well as a depth call, and sees things unravelling pretty soon. That could prove to be correct, but one thing shorts know all too well is that obvious-seeming outcomes can take much longer to come to pass than they ever thought.

    Some of his observations seem spot on, in particular, that the Fed will lose its nerve and abandon its efforts to withdraw from quantitative easing, despite noises now to the contrary, that the dollar will rally near-term, and the yen will break.

    From the Telegraph:

           The contraction of M3 money in the US and Europe over the last six months will slowly puncture economic recovery as 2010 unfolds, with the time-honoured lag of a year or so. Ben Bernanke will be caught off guard, just as he was in mid-2008 when the Fed drove straight through a red warning light with talk of imminent rate rises - the final error that triggered the implosion of Lehman, AIG, and the Western banking system.

            As the great bear rally of 2009 runs into the greater Chinese Wall of excess global capacity, it will become clear that we are in the grip of a 21st Century Depression - more akin to Japan's Lost Decade than the 1840s or 1930s, but nothing like the normal cycles of the post-War era. ...The vast East-West imbalances that caused the credit crisis are no better a year later, and perhaps worse. Household debt as a share of GDP sits near record levels in two-fifths of the world economy. Our long purge has barely begun. That is the elephant in the global tent....

            Yields on AAA German, French, US, and Canadian bonds will slither back down for a while in a fresh deflation scare. Exit strategies will go back into the deep freeze. Far from ending QE, the Fed will step up bond purchases. Bernanke will get religion again and ram down 10-year Treasury yields, quietly targeting 2.5pc. The funds will try to play the liquidity game yet again, piling into crude, gold, and Russian equities, but this time returns will be meagre. They will learn to respect secular deflation.

            Weak sovereigns will buckle. The shocker will be Japan, our Weimar-in-waiting...The Bank of Japan will pull the emergency lever on QE. The country will flip from deflation to incipient hyperinflation. The yen will fall out of bed, outdoing China's yuan in the beggar-thy-neighbour race to the bottom. By then China too will be in a quandary. Wild credit growth can mask the weakness of its mercantilist export model for a while, but only at the price of an asset bubble. Beijing must hit the brakes this year, or store up serious trouble. It will make as big a hash of this as Western central banks did in 2007-2008.

        ....

            The dollar rally will gather pace. America's economy - though sick - will shine within the even sicker OECD club....Mervyn King's pre-emptive QE and timely devaluation will bear fruit this year, sparing us the worst. By mid to late 2010, we will have lanced the biggest boils of the global system. Only then, amid fear and investor revulsion, will we touch bottom. That will be the buying opportunity of our lives.



Being Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, [Europe.Is.Doomed™ Alert] he naturally sees the EU breaking up, but I would not wish to deprive those more qualified than I from quoting and responding to those predictions, so I have omitted specific references to the EU and Euro.

What I find particularly interesting is that he "sees" all of these events and their resolution without even mentioning all of the bad debt at the foundation of the crisis or HOW it is to be resolved. Debt for equity swap?

[vbo man]

Silicon Valley `Bloodbath' Leaves Entire Office Buildings Empty - BusinessWeek

   Silicon Valley is beset by the biggest office property glut since the dot-com bust, leaving the U.S. technology hub with empty high-rises and office parks that make it impossible for landlords to sustain average rents.

   More than 43 million square feet (4 million square meters) -- the equivalent of 15 Empire State Buildings -- stood vacant at the end of the third quarter, the most in almost five years, according to CB Richard Ellis Group Inc. San Jose, Sunnyvale and Palo Alto have 11 empty office buildings with about 3 million square feet of the best quality space.

   "There is a bubble bursting in much the same way as the residential market burst," said Jon Haveman, principal at Beacon Economics, a consulting firm in San Rafael, California. "None of those towers will fill up anytime soon."

Silikonska dolina opustela...nemoz da izdaju poslovni prostor da jebe oca...

It felt half empty when I moved to town back in July of 2006 from what I assumed was the leftovers from the dot com boom and offshoring. I watched in relative horror as "Moffett Towers" was being built throughout 2008 before I left on my trip; it sits empty now that it's finished (it's mentioned in the article).

[vbo man]

Evo GM zatvara i Opelovu fabriku u Belgiji...2500 radnika...

[vbo man]

Guardian: Obama announces dramatic crackdown on Wall Street banks

    President Barack Obama today declared his intent to take on Wall Street by announcing plans for stringent rules on the banking sector that prompted comparisons with the draconian regulations introduced after the Great Depression.

    In the boldest move taken by any government around the world to respond to the financial crisis, Obama told banks they would no longer be able to take risky bets with their own capital to make money on the financial markets.

    Banks which take deposits will not be allowed to use their own money to take bets on markets, run hedge funds or make private equity investments through what he called the "Volcker rule" after former Federal Reserve chairman Paul Volcker.

    He also wants to prevent further consolidation of the financial system in the US and will ban takeovers and mergers among American firms in the sector.

OK ajd nek nam struchnjaci objasne kakav efekat se ochekuje od ovoga? Ako ikakav?